A low-water river
The Elbe
Next 12 months
water = chance the month goes as planned · dot = live forecast
Nov*
Dec*
Jan*
Feb*
Mar*
Apr*
May*
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Last five years, month by month
The five years before each month, most recent on top · marks are months that hit low water · solid = a week or more
RAIN · Bohemian basin + Giant Mountains: last 45 days 102 mm vs 174 mm normal (-41%) · next 16 days 51 mm vs 54 mm (-5%)
Elbe at Dresden
free-flowing almost end to end, Europe's most exposed cruise river
DRESDEN 57 cm · low
- Today vs 30 years
- p3.3
- Status now
- low water now
- The trouble line
- 72 m³/s
- This week
- 7% as planned
Weekly outlook · 30 weeks
2026-11-112027-06-02
Has it been like this before?
Yes. The Elbe at Dresden sat at almost exactly today's flow in 2005, within 0% of where it is now.
Here is what the river did over the six weeks after each of the closest years. Nothing here is a forecast. It's the measured record.
| Year | Date | Flow | vs today | Back over the line | Days low of the next 42 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | October 30 | 39 m³/s | +0% | after 21 days | 33 |
| 2003 | November 13 | 39 m³/s | +0.2% | after 18 days | 27 |
| 2024 | November 19 | 39 m³/s | +0.5% | after 3 days | 2 |
| 2011 | November 12 | 40 m³/s | +0.9% | after 24 days | 23 |
| 2018 | October 26 | 39 m³/s | +1.6% | after 2 days | 23 |
The pattern is the useful part. In every one of those years the river climbed back over the line, and it took between 2 and 24 days to do it. What it didn't do was stay there: in the harder years it dropped back under repeatedly through the autumn. That is why a cruise in a low-water spell usually means a rerouted day or two rather than a lost holiday.
Flow figures are the European Union's GloFAS record for Elbe at Dresden, measured on November 10 and the same date in each earlier year. The line is the level below which this stretch has run only 12% of the time in thirty years.
Where these numbers come from: how it works. Still picking a date? Start with when to go.