A low-water river
The Elbe
Next 12 months
water = chance the month goes as planned · dot = live forecast
Sep*
Oct*
Nov*
Dec*
Jan*
Feb*
Mar*
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Last five years, month by month
The five years before each month, most recent on top · marks are months that hit low water · solid = a week or more
RAIN · Bohemian basin + Giant Mountains: last 45 days 320 mm vs 214 mm normal (+50%) · next 16 days 32 mm vs 68 mm (-53%)
Elbe at Dresden
free-flowing almost end to end, Europe's most exposed cruise river
DRESDEN 63 cm · low
- Today vs 30 years
- p18.6
- Status now
- normal range
- The trouble line
- 72 m³/s
- This week
- 43% as planned
Weekly outlook · 30 weeks
2026-09-272027-04-04
Has it been like this before?
Yes. The Elbe at Dresden sat at almost exactly today's flow in 2016, within 0.2% of where it is now.
Here is what the river did over the six weeks after each of the closest years. Nothing here is a forecast. It's the measured record.
| Year | Date | Flow | vs today | Back over the line | Days low of the next 42 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | September 7 | 96 m³/s | +0.2% | after 1 day | 3 |
| 2008 | October 12 | 97 m³/s | +0.2% | after 1 day | 1 |
| 2005 | October 15 | 96 m³/s | +0.5% | after 1 day | 36 |
| 2015 | September 5 | 96 m³/s | +0.5% | after 1 day | 19 |
| 2018 | September 19 | 96 m³/s | +0.5% | after 1 day | 28 |
The pattern is the useful part. In every one of those years the river climbed back over the line, and it took between 1 and 1 days to do it. What it didn't do was stay there: in the harder years it dropped back under repeatedly through the autumn. That is why a cruise in a low-water spell usually means a rerouted day or two rather than a lost holiday.
Flow figures are the European Union's GloFAS record for Elbe at Dresden, measured on September 26 and the same date in each earlier year. The line is the level below which this stretch has run only 12% of the time in thirty years.
Where these numbers come from: how it works. Still picking a date? Start with when to go.